Angola is embarking on a high-stakes energy strategy that seeks to stabilize its oil production while accelerating the development of its natural gas sector. This dual-track approach reflects a calculated response to the country’s declining crude output and shifting global energy dynamics. Despite its recent departure from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Angola has not pursued aggressive expansion in oil production. Instead, it is opting to hold the line at approximately 1.1 million barrels per day, a level that has become increasingly difficult to maintain due to aging infrastructure, waning investment, and natural field depletion. The decision to exit OPEC in 2023 removed quota constraints, but it did not reverse the downward trend in output, underscoring the structural challenges facing Angola’s oil sector.
Rather than chasing higher volumes, Angola is focusing on preserving its current output through targeted reinvestment and improved fiscal discipline. This strategy aims to ensure a steady flow of oil revenues, which remain critical to the national budget. By prioritizing stability over expansion, Angola hopes to buy time to implement broader reforms and attract new investment into its energy sector. The government’s approach signals a pragmatic recognition of the limitations of its mature oil fields and the need to diversify its energy portfolio to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving global market.
In parallel, Angola is stepping on the gas, literally, by ramping up efforts to monetize its substantial natural gas reserves. This pivot is gaining momentum through major discoveries and infrastructure projects led by international energy firms. Azule Energy, a joint venture between BP and Eni, recently announced a significant find at the Gajajeira-01 well, uncovering over one trillion cubic feet of gas and 100 million barrels of condensate. This discovery marks a turning point in Angola’s gas ambitions, offering a new avenue for export revenues and domestic energy security. The New Gas Consortium, which includes Azule and Chevron, is spearheading the development of the Quiluma and Maboqueiro fields, slated to come online by late 2025. These projects are expected to boost Angola’s gas output by 20 percent over the next five years, leveraging existing infrastructure to accelerate deployment and reduce costs.
Angola’s energy strategy is a delicate balancing act, one that hinges on the successful execution of gas projects and the ability to sustain oil production at current levels. The country is betting that this approach will provide fiscal stability, attract foreign investment, and position Angola as a more diversified energy exporter. However, the timeline is tight, and the stakes are high. Delays or missteps could undermine the entire strategy, especially in a global market where competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) buyers is intensifying. Angola’s gamble is not just about barrels and cubic feet—it’s about redefining its role in the global energy landscape and securing a more resilient economic future.