Burundi is bracing for a difficult agricultural season as an emerging La Niña weather pattern threatens to disrupt Season A crop production, which typically runs from September to January. Climate forecasts indicate erratic and below-average rainfall, particularly in the northern and eastern regions, where food insecurity is already a pressing concern. These unpredictable conditions are expected to reduce planting success and crop yields, undermining household incomes and seasonal labor opportunities. For communities that rely heavily on subsistence farming, the impact could be severe, pushing many into deeper vulnerability.
The looming effects of La Niña compound existing economic pressures. Food prices remain elevated despite temporary relief from the previous Season B harvest, with staples like maize and beans significantly more expensive than the previous year. Inflation has driven up the cost of agricultural inputs, while cross-border trade restrictions have limited market access. In regions such as the Eastern Dry Plateaus and Northern Lowlands, where wages are already 65% below the national average, many households are projected to fall into IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) levels of food insecurity during the lean season. These areas are particularly exposed to climate shocks and lack the infrastructure to absorb further disruptions.
Humanitarian assistance continues but is falling short of growing needs. Funding gaps have forced aid agencies to scale back support, with approximately 56,000 refugees in Burundi receiving only half of their usual food rations. This reduction in aid heightens the risk of malnutrition and deteriorating health outcomes, especially among children and vulnerable groups. The situation underscores the urgent need for climate-adaptive agricultural strategies, improved storage and irrigation infrastructure, and sustained investment in food systems. Without coordinated action, the combined effects of La Niña and economic fragility could deepen the crisis and stall progress toward long-term resilience.